Predictive factors for breast cancer in patients diagnosed with ductal intraepithelial neoplasia, grade 1B.

BACKGROUND For ductal intraepithelial neoplasia, grade 1B, studies that predict breast cancer risk after an 11-gauge vacuum-assisted breast biopsy have yielded contradictory results. In order to identify a predictive model of breast cancer risk, we assessed the underestimation rate according to radiological and clinical findings. PATIENTS AND METHODS Our study involved 212 patients. We compared the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves and the clinical utility of a logistic regression and partitioning model. RESULTS Overall upgrade to malignancy occurred in 42 (19.8%) out of the 212 cases. The area under the curve for the logistic regression and partitioning model were 0.65 (95% confidence interval=0.61-0.70) and 0.58 (95% confidence interval=0.54-0.62), respectively. The lowest predicted underestimation rate obtained with the logistic regression model was 9.5%. CONCLUSION From this large series, we were unable to define any accurate safety model for breast cancer. Surgery should be thus recommended.